With just a few days remaining until the November 11 governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states, there is a growing concern that nearly 70 percent of eligible voters, especially in Imo state, may abstain from voting due to heightened insecurity and a significant loss of confidence in the electoral process.
During the last elections, a mere 20 percent of Permanent Voters Card (PVC) holders participated, a number that might further decline given the widespread apprehension about personal safety and concerns regarding the credibility of the electoral system.
Bayelsa and Kogi have also experienced a decline in voter turnout, with Bayelsa dropping from 36.4 percent to 16.4 percent and Kogi’s from 33.6 percent to 24.6 percent during the last presidential election.
Official records from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicate that Imo state has registered approximately 2.42 million PVC holders for the 2023 general elections.
However, due to prevailing insecurity, new findings suggest that the state might be left with only 600,000 eligible voters, of which 300,000 (13 percent of total PVC holders) might participate.
In Imo state, INEC has declared no election in 38 polling units out of 4,758 due to zero registered voters, while a survey conducted by the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) revealed that only about 130,000 genuine votes may be relied upon to determine the governorship election outcome.
The situation has been further exacerbated by widespread violence, killings, intimidation, and fear, leading many residents to question the integrity of the electoral process.
Bayelsa state, particularly in its capital Yenagoa, faces significant voter apathy, as residents have lost interest in voting due to previous electoral disappointments and recent general elections.
There are concerns that voters might stay away out of fear of violence and threats by the major political parties, PDP and APC, in Nembe and Southern Ijaw Local Councils.
The escalation of attacks and killings, especially in Opu-Nembe, further contributes to the decline in voter turnout.
Kogi state is not exempt from these worries. Opposition parties, including PDP, ADC, and SDP, have accused the ruling APC of employing tactics to suppress opposition and recruiting foreign thugs to disrupt the election.
These concerns are intensified by the directive from the Kogi State Government to hotel owners to reserve all rooms, raising suspicions of plans to accommodate imported militias to create chaos before and during the elections.
The unresolved issue of the 2019 governorship election and the outcome of the March 2023 State House of Assembly elections have also created apprehension among Imo state residents.
The Supreme Court’s delay in addressing the case regarding the actual APC candidate and the validation of questionable polling unit results have eroded confidence in the electoral process.
Many residents fear being manipulated to legitimize a flawed election outcome.
Despite these challenges, INEC has assured the public of its efforts to instill confidence in the electoral process.
The commission has deployed necessary facilities to ensure a smooth and secure election, with 17 political parties participating in Imo state.
However, the prevailing atmosphere of insecurity and distrust continues to cast a shadow over the upcoming elections, raising concerns about the overall integrity of the electoral outcomes.
